UK Haulage in 2025: Key Facts, Challenges and What Comes Next

The UK haulage industry has always been resilient, but 2025 is testing that resilience in new ways. Freight volumes are down, costs are up, and the driver workforce is ageing faster than it's being replaced. Whether you're running a small owner-operator setup or managing a large fleet, the pressures are real — and they're coming from multiple directions at once. Here's a clear-eyed look at where the industry stands right now, what the numbers actually mean, and what you should be thinking about for the road ahead.

---

The Numbers Don't Lie: Where Freight Volumes Stand

According to the latest Department for Transport (DfT) figures, Great Britain-registered HGVs lifted around 1.53 billion tonnes of goods in 2025 — a 3% drop compared to 2024. Total freight performance (measured in tonne-kilometres) fell by 4% to 162 billion, and total vehicle distance dropped 2% to 19.0 billion kilometres.

That's not a cliff edge, but it's a meaningful softening. What makes it sting more is that costs haven't softened alongside volumes — they've gone the other way.

One figure that should get every transport manager thinking is this: 31% of all HGV kilometres are being run empty. Nearly a third of all road miles are generating zero revenue. That's a massive inefficiency baked into the industry, and it points to a genuine opportunity for operators willing to tighten up their route planning and backhaul strategies. Better load-matching, smarter scheduling, and improved communication between depots can all chip away at that number.

The overall market is still worth an estimated £42 billion, but that valuation is increasingly held up by higher service charges and contract indexation rather than actual volume growth. In short, the industry is charging more to move less — and margins are still being squeezed.

---

The Driver Shortage Isn't Going Away

This won't be news to anyone running a fleet, but the HGV driver shortage remains a stubborn structural problem. Around 26% of HGV businesses reported vacancies in late 2025, up slightly from 24% the year before. The active driver pool sits at roughly 293,700 — down 1.9% year on year.

An Ageing Workforce with No Easy Fix

The demographic picture is genuinely concerning. The average HGV driver is now between 51 and 53 years old, and fewer than 2% of drivers are under 25. Retirement is one of the top reasons businesses are struggling to fill seats, and there simply aren't enough young drivers coming through to replace those leaving.

Why aren't younger people entering the industry? The barriers are well-documented: the cost of training and licensing, the lifestyle demands of long-haul work, and — frankly — the perception that there are easier, better-paid options elsewhere. Operators who are winning the recruitment battle tend to be those offering structured training programmes, clear career progression, and better working conditions rather than just a slightly higher hourly rate.

For compliance purposes, it's also worth noting that driver shortages can quietly create compliance risks — pressuring drivers to exceed hours limits or skip proper pre-use vehicle checks. Tools that help automate and document these checks, like Fleet77, can take some of that administrative pressure off both drivers and transport managers day-to-day.

---

Costs Are Rising and Margins Are Razor-Thin

If there's one thing keeping operators up at night in 2025, it's the cost picture. Non-fuel operating costs rose by nearly 6% this year, with insurance premiums up around 21% over two years, vehicle acquisition costs climbing, and National Insurance contributions increasing following the Autumn Budget.

What the Budget Means for You

The Autumn Budget 2025 brought some policy changes that will feed through to operating costs over the next couple of years. Most notably:

• The 5p fuel duty cut will begin to be reversed in stages from late 2026
• The HGV Levy and Vehicle Excise Duty are both set to rise in line with inflation from April 2026

None of this is catastrophic in isolation, but stacked on top of already tight margins — the industry average is sitting around 2% — it leaves very little room for error. Roughly 33% of haulage firms are currently classified as being at maximum credit risk, which gives a sense of just how stretched many businesses are.

Good compliance management has a direct financial upside here. Operators running under the DVSA's Earned Recognition scheme, which is built around the DVSA HGV Operator Audit Standards, benefit from reduced roadside inspection rates and a demonstrable commitment to standards — both of which can feed into insurance assessments and operator licence risk profiles over time.

---

The Green Transition: Slower Than Anyone Expected

The push toward zero-emission HGVs is part of every policy conversation, but the reality on the ground is very different. Around 70% of operators currently have no plans to introduce electric or hydrogen vehicles into their fleets — and the reasons are straightforward: electric HGVs can cost double their diesel equivalents, public charging infrastructure for heavy vehicles is still sparse, and the business case simply doesn't stack up for most operators at current prices.

Intermodal Is Quietly Growing

One area where the sustainability agenda is making practical headway is intermodal freight — combining road haulage with rail or sea transport. Intermodal now accounts for 5% of all HGV journeys, and it's growing. For long-haul operators in particular, intermodal can cut fuel costs, reduce driver hours exposure, and lower emissions without requiring investment in new vehicle technology. It's worth exploring if you're not already.

The honest position for most UK hauliers in 2025 is that diesel is staying for the foreseeable future — but that doesn't mean ignoring efficiency. Fuel management, driver behaviour monitoring, and reducing empty running are all practical steps that lower both costs and emissions right now, without waiting for the infrastructure to catch up.

---

What This All Means in Practice

2025 is a year of managing tightly. Volumes are lower, costs are higher, drivers are harder to find, and the regulatory and financial environment isn't getting any easier. The operators who will come out of this period strongest are the ones who are running lean, staying compliant, and making decisions based on accurate, up-to-date data rather than gut feel.

Compliance isn't just a box-ticking exercise — when it's done properly, it protects your licence, reduces your risk, and can genuinely save money. Whether that's through Earned Recognition, tighter vehicle inspection records, or better driver management, the fundamentals matter more than ever when margins are this thin.

---

Want to get your fleet compliance running more smoothly? Try Fleet77 free or get in touch to see how it works.